Why Stacking is Critical in Best Ball - Football Outsiders

NFL Offseason - Daily fantasy and best ball formats both heavily reward top finishers with their typical tournament payouts. It's little wonder that players of both games rely on a common strategy of stacking, loading up on quarterbacks and receivers from the same NFL team. But the daily and best ball similarities can obscure a subtle difference that provides an extra incentive to stack in best ball and points managers to specific stacking targets. Best ball stacks offer players a chance to turn one correct quarterback sleeper call into wins at multiple different positions.

At first blush, quarterback sleepers seem just as enticing in daily fantasy as they are in best ball. But the former game's fixed weekly salaries and repeatable draft picks offer other stacking incentives. When one receiver is hurt, his less expensive backup can motivate an underpriced team stack with his quarterback. When one running back is hurt, his less expensive backup can motivate an underpriced game stack with his opposing quarterback and wide receiver. And when one player is under-rostered, he can motivate an underused stack whose potential success would earn you more exclusive benefits.

Best ball does not have those other incentives. A best ball snake draft will, on average, capture current injury expectations. And every best ball lineup is unique to its league since players are drafted to specific teams. That distillation funnels drafters between the guardrails that Hayden Winks of Underdog Fantasy illustrates in a pair of charts. They stack because best ball teams see a positive correlation in their playoff advancement rates when they draft teammates from any combination of the four offensive fantasy positions.

And they don't reach because teams score fewer points when they consistently pick players ahead of their average draft positions.

A best ball chart that I anticipate will be less controversial than previous posts pic.twitter.com/J10ZhONHpW

— Hayden Winks (@HaydenWinks) February 21, 2022

When everyone stacks and no one reaches, winners win with luck or by beating the market on player projections. And while our full-season KUBIAK projections (which will roll out for 2022 in the coming months) should help you identify quarterback and skill-player values at their average draft positions, quarterback sleepers carry an added strategic importance because of what their breakouts typically do for their teammates.

A comparison of full-season KUBIAK projections and actual fantasy scoring from recent seasons demonstrates the point. I bucketed projected starting quarterbacks who played 12 or more games into five groups:

• those that averaged at least three more fantasy points per game than their projected totals;
• those that average one to three more points per game than projected;
• those within one point of their projections;
• those who fell one to three points short of their projections;
• and those who fell three points or more short.

Then I calculated the average fantasy points those quarterbacks' No. 1 projected running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, and No. 2 projected wide receivers scored per 16 games over their projected totals. The results really pop. When quarterbacks out-score their projections, their skill-player teammates do as well.

You may be tempted to stack early with popular players such as Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, and Gabriel Davis and then try to beat the market with independent late-round sleeper picks such as Ronald Jones, Braxton Berrios, and Brevin Jordan. But these tendencies show that it's easier to stack later, because if you nail your sleeper quarterback pick, then that success will manifest as surplus value for all his teammates in your stack.

As for the positional differences, it's no surprise to see No. 1 receivers ebb and flow with their quarterbacks more than No. 1 running backs do. It's the same reason Winks found more than double the correlation in playoff advancement rates between quarterback-receiver pairs as he did quarterback-rusher pairs—wide receivers gain almost all of their yards and touchdowns on quarterback pass attempts and running backs don't. I suspect No. 2 receivers see a compressed spectrum because their roles and therefore target shares have more room to change. But I was surprised to see tight ends benefit the most from dramatic quarterback underpricing. And while that 38.1-point surplus is likely inflated by breakouts from generational players such as Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, the 12 best quarterback values since 2010 all carried their top tight ends to surplus fantasy points and justified the latter position as a stacking priority.

Tight End Fantasy Point Surpluses for the Most Under-Projected Quarterbacks, 2010-2021
			Quarterback			Tight End
Season	Team		Player	PPG Surplus		Player	Pts Surplus
2019	BAL		Lamar Jackson	9.8		Mark Andrews	85.5
2018	KC		Patrick Mahomes	8.9		Travis Kelce	65.6
2011	CAR		Cam Newton	8.8		Greg Olsen	9.6
2011	DET		Matthew Stafford	8.0		Brandon Pettigrew	38.4
2015	CAR		Cam Newton	7.0		Greg Olsen	24.0
2011	NE		Tom Brady	6.6		Rob Gronkowski	166.4
2011	NO		Drew Brees	6.3		Jimmy Graham	134.4
2011	GB		Aaron Rodgers	6.3		Jermichael Finley	1.6
2020	KC		Patrick Mahomes	5.6		Travis Kelce	97.5
2014	IND		Andrew Luck	5.4		Dwayne Allen	19.2
2020	TEN		Ryan Tannehill	5.3		Jonnu Smith	40.6
2017	PHI		Carson Wentz	5.2		Zach Ertz	49.0

It isn't easy to hit on quarterback sleepers. KUBIAK adjusts for all of the obvious tendencies like indoor/outdoor splits and second-year breakouts—all five quarterback buckets from my research saw average ages between 28.4 and 29.5 years old—but so do most other projection systems and ranking sets that inform average draft positions. But in best ball, you don't need to be right more often than other drafters. You just need to be right in clusters, and stacking with quarterback sleepers improves the chances that you will be.

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Watch Jon Rahm nearly shank a golf ball into someone's backyard at the Memorial - GolfDigest.com

As most golf fans are aware, Jon Rahm was forced to withdraw from the Memorial last year with a six-shot lead due to a positive Covid test. On Friday, he may have felt like walking off Muirfield Village for an entirely different reason.

That's because the 27-year-old Spaniard hit a shank from the middle of the fairway on the second hole during the second round. And it wasn't just any shank. It was a full-bore shank. One that almost wound up in someone's backyard. Have a look for yourself:

Wow. That hideous ball flight. That sickening sound. That's as shanky as a shank gets right there from the former World No. 1 and reigning U.S. Open champ.

But because Jon Rahm is those things and not Jon Regular Weekend hack, of course he redeemed himself quickly. Fortunate that his ball remained in bounds, Rahm pitched back to the fairway then got up and down for an all-(around the)world bogey. Then made a bounceback birdie on the next hole.

It's like he just made pars on those two holes. Except, he didn't because there's video evidence. And the PGA Tour did him dirty by sharing that video evidence with the world. Just a hunch, but Jon will be hearing about that shot from his fellow colleagues later.

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When Basketball Turns Into Super Slam Ball | Just Visiting - Inside Higher Ed

Imagine that you used to play basketball just about every day down at the playground with a whole group of people. You were responsible for bringing the ball, and you took that responsibility seriously, so the first thing you’d do before playing is pick up the ball and give it a squeeze, bounce it a couple of times to check the action. Usually you’d decide the ball needed just a little shot of air, one or two plunges of the bike pump with the needle attachment on the end at the most. Lots of people probably wouldn’t even notice the difference before and after, but you knew it mattered.

At some point, you lose the needle attachment for the pump, and you never seem to have time to get a replacement, but no matter, you still have a perfectly good basketball.

For a while, anyway.

Over time you realize that when you dribble, getting the ball back to your hand requires more force than usual. Still, everyone wants to play, and let’s say that now that little needle attachment is either scarce or kind of expensive, so you just keep showing up with the less than ideal ball.

It’s fine. Sure, the missed shots thud against the rim and bounce passes seem to skid under the hands of the intended recipient, but if anyone came by and saw what the gang is doing, they’d say you were playing basketball.

The games continue, and every time you pick up the ball you realize that you wish you could replace the needle attachment, but honestly, sitting there in the corner of the garage, the basketball still looks very much like a basketball, and when you go to the playground, you still do basketball-like things.

Maybe you don’t need the needle attachment after all?

OK, the ball is now sufficiently deflated that you can no longer dribble with one hand, so you have to use two hands to kind of hurl the thing to the ground, over and over again, but it’s basically basketball.

With this ball, obviously double dribbling cannot be enforced, so you change the rules to allow that. Now when people drive by and see what you’re doing, they recognize elements of basketball, but also think that you must not know the actual rules of the game, and they wonder what’s going wrong with the world that people don’t even know how to dribble a basketball anymore.

Over time, even the two-handed slam dribble becomes too taxing, so you eliminate traveling, too. The ball is not so much round anymore but kind of oblong, with flat spots on each side. Now that there’s no dribbling, it’s impossible to steal the ball on defense without fouling, so increased body contact is allowed as the defender tries to wrest the partially deflated basketball away from the person in possession.

The shape and weight of the ball also makes shooting from anywhere other than underneath the basket nearly impossible, so offenses charge toward the opposing basket, shoulders down, heaving the ball between players until they are in a position to toss the ball through the hoop. The defenders try to take the ball away, but this, too, becomes too difficult within even the relaxed standards of body contact, so it’s decided that now tackling is allowed.

While this sport is played on a basketball court, using a ball that once (but no longer) functioned as a basketball, it is now sufficiently different that you give it a name, something like Super Slam Ball, and for a while, it is sort of novel, and you and the other players tell yourselves and the world that Super Slam Ball is actually pretty f-ing awesome, like a cross between basketball and rugby. It’s much tougher than either, if you think about it, being tackled on blacktop and having to shoot the oblong ball through a hoop. It’s a real badge of honor to be able to survive a game of Super Slam Ball, win or lose.

Of course, whereas you used to play basketball all day, swapping new players in and out as they came to the playground, you can only muster a game of Super Slam Ball every few weeks, because let’s face it, it takes a while to heal up from being tackled on the blacktop, and it’s frankly been tough to get a lot of new people interested in Super Slam Ball.

But since it’s the only game around, people who want to play something still show up, but over time, fewer and fewer people join, and soon more are leaving than starting.

Finally someone manages to acquire one of those needle attachments for the bike pump, and the decision is made to inflate the Super Slam Ball back into a basketball. The task is a little arduous. Where before it would take two or three pumps at the most to get the ball to proper inflation, this takes 20, 30, 40 or more. You keep testing the ball every 10 or so pumps to see if it’s good enough, and one of those times, even though you know it’s not quite right, you take it to the playground.

It reminds you of the old times, but because the ball isn’t properly inflated, it’s not quite as good. When you put the ball back in the corner of the garage, you notice that the rubber seal around where the pump needle is inserted is brittle and cracked, and if you squeeze the ball, little puffs of air leak out.

Next time you go to play, you notice that the basketball is looking more like a Super Slam Ball, and you debate whether or not it would be even worth the time to reinflate it, given the fact that it will take another 40 or 50 pumps and the thing is just going to deflate again anyway.

Just about everyone agrees that basketball is superior to Super Slam Ball, but no one wants to pony up the money for a new basketball, so as regrettable as it seems, and as much as people miss basketball, the only way to keep moving forward is to stick with Super Slam Ball and just call it basketball, because if you want new players, you have to promise them basketball.

I don’t know if public higher education is basketball that has morphed into Super Slam Ball or if the notion that it was ever basketball is an illusion, pure wishful thinking.

What I do know is that we cannot keep pretending that what’s happening is basketball when in reality it’s Super Slam Ball.

Institutions have missions, but in too many cases, the way they operate, the manner in which they are resourced is simply inconsistent with actually achieving those missions without putting too many students into debt and without grinding down faculty and staff.

I don’t think it’s too late to have the kinds of conversations that help establish the shared values and beliefs that underlie the mission, but it does require recognizing what’s happening for real, and that that basketball isn’t a basketball anymore.

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Exclusive: Michael Jordan-backed HEIR to launch Lonzo Ball NFT - Axios

HEIR, a Web3 platform backed by Michael Jordan and co-founded by his son Jeffrey, is launching its first athlete membership NFT with Bulls star Lonzo Ball, Axios has learned.

Details: The NFT collection is in collaboration with Chicago native and renowned streetwear designer Don C. and will launch on June 7 through a mint on Magic Eden's Launchpad, a Solana-based marketplace.

• "As an early HEIR investor and one of the most compelling personalities in basketball, Lonzo is the perfect partner ... as we transform sports fans to owners," says Jeffrey Jordan.
• HEIR launched its first NFTs in March — a collection called "6 Rings" that paid homage to MJ's six titles. They sold out the initial 5,005 allotment for 2.3 SOL each, worth roughly $221 at the time.

How it works: Rather than simply acquiring digital collectibles of their favorite athletes, HEIR enables fans to acquire membership to that athlete's inner circle.

• Owners of Ball's NFT won't just own the digital artwork. They'll also gain entry to his "Huddle," which grants them access to exclusive content, merchandise, in-person events, Q&As and other experiences.
• Think of it like a backstage pass: The NFT acts as a digital ticket that allows the holder to get closer to that athlete and experience things that general admission (i.e. Ball's Instagram followers) can't.
• 4,200 NFTs will be minted as part of Ball's collection and Ball has 13.7 million Instagram followers, so those 4,200 owners would represent the top ~0.03% of his supporter base.

Between the lines: One concern about NFTs that promise special access to celebrities is that those celebrities won't actually do anything special. In the case of Ball, how much time can he really devote to Huddle members?

• HEIR is confident that won't be a problem. "We understand the life of an athlete and that time commitment," says co-founder Jeron Smith, the former CEO of Steph Curry's Unanimous Media.
• Huddles include features specifically designed to deepen engagement even when athletes are busy. One example: A Spotify integration that shows what songs they've been listening to lately.

The big picture: As with most Web3-based projects, a key component of HEIR's model is active ownership — for both the supporters and the athletes.

• Supporters: Once the Huddle is full, the only way to get in is if somebody sells you their seat. That means early owners of Ball's NFT will have a chance to be rewarded for essentially investing in him.
• Athletes: Athletes will get a cut of the primary NFT sales (HEIR will keep the rest), plus a cut of all subsequent sales, allowing them to benefit if and when the value of a "seat" in their Huddle increases.

The bottom line: Imagine buying a limited edition trading card that's digital, not physical, and comes with exclusive access to that athlete, membership perks and can be re-sold on the blockchain. That's HEIR.

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Josh Allen Trolls Tom Brady With Special Golf Ball for ‘The Match’ - Sports Illustrated

Bills quarterback Josh Allen brought quite the special golf ball to play with during “The Match” golf event, in which Allen is teaming up with Patrick Mahomes to compete against Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers.

Allen showed his golf ball ahead of “The Match,” and he made sure it poked fun at his Buccaneers quarterback opponent.

The 26-year-old will be using a golf ball with Tom Brady’s infamous NFL scouting combine photo on it.

The photo, which Brady has previously said he wants erased from the internet based on how often it gets reposted, is originally from 2000, the year that Brady began playing in the NFL with the Patriots.

Allen also made sure to poke fun at Brady’s old age of 44.

“The picture is so old that they had to shrink it down and couldn’t use the whole thing,” Allen said.

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Brady made sure to troll Allen back with his golf ball. The seven-time Super Bowl champion put a picture of the Lombardi trophy on his golf ball. Allen is the only quarterback participating without a Super Bowl title in his career.

“Josh, have you ever seen one of these? Do you know what that is?” Brady said to Allen.

“I’ve seen it,” Allen said.

The four NFL quarterbacks will play a 12-hole match on Wednesday night in Las Vegas. This is the sixth edition of “The Match.” Mahomes and Allen are playing for the first time. However, Brady has lost in his two appearances, while Rodgers won in his one appearance last year. This is the first version consisting of solely NFL stars without any PGA professionals joining in. 

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WATCH: Fan makes wild one-handed catch on home run ball while holding baby during Mets game - CBS Sports

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A Queens, N.Y. man attending Tuesday's game between the New York Mets and Washington Nationals made a spectacular grab on a home run ball, reaching over a railing to make a one-handed catch while holding his one-year old son.

Alan Alcantara, 31, of the Ridgewood neighborhood in Queens used his free hand to catch a home run from Starling Marte that came in the direction of him and his son Levi Alcantara's catch made him an instant star, stunning the SNY broadcasters.

The viral highlight has since earned 1.7 million views on SNY's Twitter account.

According to the Associated Press, Alcantara had been attending the game as part of an organized church group, and he attributed his barehanded catch to instinct and his own experience playing baseball while growing up in the Dominican Republic.

"In Dominican Republic, we don't all get to have gloves, so we do play baseball barehanded, so I figured I could do it," Alcantara said. "I did it many times when I was a kid, so why not?"

Although Alcantara's catch will make for a good family memory -- Alcantara and his wife have two children and are expecting a third -- they will not keep the ball. Alcantara stated that he will give the ball to his pastor, who is a diehard Mets fan.

Alcantara's catch was just one of many opportunities that fans had to make catches of home run balls, as the Mets blew out the Nationals, 10-0, on Tuesday night.

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Ball State Hires Michael Lane to Lead Office of Institutional Research and Decision Support - Ball State University News

Michael Lane will join Ball State University as associate vice president for institutional research, analytics, and decision support, effective July 1, Dr. Charlene Alexander, chief strategy officer, announced. 

Mr. Lane, who has more than 25 years of experience in institutional research roles in higher education, will be providing strategic leadership for and overall management of Ball State’s Office of Institutional Research and Decision Support. The unit provides data and analysis to support Ball State’s decision-making process; coordinates reporting to various federal, state, and external agencies; and maintains the accuracy of University statistics in several reports, including the annual Factbook. 

“We are excited that Michael will be joining our University as we continue to meet the changing needs in dynamic regional and national higher education markets,” Dr. Alexander said. “Michael has proven throughout his career to be a collaborative and impactful leader. His experience, passion, and sense of duty make him an excellent fit to lead our Office of Institutional Research and Decision Support.” 

Mr. Lane started his career at the New York Institute of Technology, where he has spent the last 25-plus years playing an important role in the university’s institutional research, analytics, and decision support efforts. Starting in 1996 as a research assistant before ascending to associate director, director, and, most recently, senior director of New York Tech’s Office of Research, Assessment and Decision Support, Mr. Lane helped foster a culture of data-informed decision making. 

“I am grateful for the opportunity to support Ball State’s student success initiatives and provide strategic leadership to the Office of Institutional Research and Decision Support,” Mr. Lane said. “As a first-generation college student from a low-income background, I am a dedicated believer in the promise of higher education to both enrich the mind and to also enable fulfilling careers. I believe that every institution should attempt to be a model citizen of its community. Ball State’s mission and values align with my own personal values.” 

During his career at New York Tech, Mr. Lane led the development of the university’s first data warehouse. Additionally, as a member of the Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion Task Force, he led the institution’s first-ever campus climate survey, which will guide New York Tech’s strategic planning for years to come. 

Mr. Lane holds an associate’s degree in Accounting from Suffolk Community College in Selden, N.Y.; a bachelor’s degree in Finance from Dowling College in Oakdale, N.Y; and a Master of Business Administration from the New York Institute of Technology. 

“My time at New York Tech has been very rewarding, and I have been involved in or led many efforts to improve the use of data,” Mr. Lane said. “I look forward to a new opportunity for change and growth at Ball State, and to support the effective use of administrative data for reporting, analysis, and actionable insight.” 

In addition to announcing Mr. Lane’s hiring, Dr. Alexander thanked Alex Kluber, senior data and decision analyst, for his service as interim associate vice president for institutional research, analytics, and decision support.

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