Tier One
Lamar Jackson (QB1) -- Jaw-dropping 9.0 percent touchdown rate in Jackson's runaway MVP campaign is bound to regress, but his average 10.8 rushing points per game in 15 starts last year arguably keeps the 23-year-old's floor as safe as any ahead of his second full season under intuitive OC Greg Roman.
Patrick Mahomes (QB2) -- Mahomes' forecasted 'letdown' in his 50-touchdown follow-up included 21.5 fantasy points per game through 13 healthy starts and 23.5 over his last 10 (playoffs included) upon returning from knee and ankle injuries. His 24 postseason scrambles highlight an easier path to trumping Jackson for the crown at their respective position in 2020.
Tier Two
Deshaun Watson (QB3) -- Merely 17.4 fantasy points per game in five starts without Will Fuller last year, but Watson's magician-like qualities have kept him afloat as the overall QB4 in back-to-back seasons. Pivoting from Bill O'Brien's garden variety play-calling to Texans OC Tim Kelly's bag of tricks offers a unique and fresh approach the organization hasn't experienced since 2016.
Dak Prescott (QB4) -- Prescott's 21.1 fantasy points per game vaulted him to an overall QB2 finish in Kellen Moore's first year as the team's play-caller. Fingers crossed the 26-year-old's dip in fantasy points (17.6) and passing yards (280.2) per game in Dallas' last six contests were due solely to his dinged shoulder.
Kyler Murray (QB5) -- Murray faced the league's fourth-toughest passing schedule (per Warren Sharp) with few weapons to speak of and still escaped as the overall QB8 in just his first year under coach Kliff Kingsbury. General Manager Steve Keim's on-record intent to upgrade the organization's supporting cast adds a salivating ceiling to go along with Murray's already enticing rushing (93/544/4) floor.
Russell Wilson (QB6) -- Averaged at least 20 fantasy points per game (20.5) as the overall QB3 for the fourth time in his illustrious eight-year career, but Wilson's underwhelming production (15.5 per game) over Seattle's last seven outings is further proof Pete Carroll's kitchen doesn't cook every Sunday.
Tier Three
Josh Allen (QB7) -- Allen's 7.1 carries per game through 27 regular season starts are second only to Lamar's ridiculous 13.4 (through 22) the past two seasons. The Bills also have 11 carries inside the five-yard line unaccounted for ahead of the new league year — a subtle plus for 23-year-old Allen as he's quietly totaled 22 carries and 13 rushing scores inside the 10 since 2018.
Carson Wentz (QB8) -- Incredibly small sample size, but the 27-year-old's lone performance with DeSean Jackson last year resulted in a season-high 25 fantasy points and 8.03 yards per attempt. Philadelphia will undoubtedly make a concerted effort in free agency to ensure Wentz isn't hung out to dry with Zach Ertz, Dallas Goedert, and Emmet Otter's Jug-Band in December again.
Matthew Stafford (QB9)-- Stafford paced for eight-year highs in passing yards (4,998), touchdowns (38), and fantasy points per game (20.8) in his first year under OC Darrell Bevell before a broken back derailed his season altogether. All offensive skill players for Detroit remain under contract in 2020.
Drew Brees (QB10) -- Forced to undergo surgery to repair a torn thumb ligament in Week 2, 40-year-old Brees still miraculously bucked all narratives in averaging 24.3 fantasy points per game upon returning for 10 healthy starts. More than capable of loitering for a handful of week-winning performances inside the Superdome, Brees is an acceptable fade in Best-Ball formats if attempting to stay ahead of his aging curve altogether.
Matt Ryan (QB11) -- 16 starts and/or 4,000 passing yards in 10 consecutive seasons makes Ryan's eventual production one of the easiest projections of the summer. Loss of Austin Hooper in free agency, however, could diminish his weekly ceiling.
Jameis Winston (QB12) -- Buoyed two All-Pro wideouts and the league's fourth-softest passing schedule into the eighth-most passing yards (5,109) in NFL history. Upside is tied entirely to Bruce Arians' high-flying O and keeping with the organization, which unfortunately doesn't seem to favor his poor decision-making in the open market.
Daniel Jones (QB13) -- Four finishes with at least 28 fantasy points last year highlighted Jones' potential ceiling but overshadowed the 10.97 he averaged in his surrounding eight starts. A healthy cast for a full 16-game schedule would do wonders.
Aaron Rodgers (QB14) -- The 36-year-old's underwhelming 17.4 fantasy points per game from last year included four top-three performances to hide the stench. Packers reportedly "intent" on adding multiple pass-catchers and making a run at impending free agent Austin Hooper this offseason, perhaps boosting Rodgers' ceiling if the dominos fall into place.
Tier Four
Baker Mayfield (QB15) -- Development arguably went backwards working with ex-coach Freddie Kitchens as Mayfield's completion rate under pressure dipped from 51.7 percent (16th-overall) in his rookie year to 45.5% (24th-overall) last season. Cleveland's revamped front office and cemented playmakers give the 24-year-old a fighting chance to right the ship before it sails away entirely.
Jared Goff (QB16) -- Goff admittedly closed the year strong, tossing multiple touchdowns in each of Los Angeles' five December games, but was a sunken cost with five single-digit fantasy performances prior to that stretch. Coach Sean McVay's perpetual journey to improve the team's play-calling allows Goff to save face despite the fifth-year pro's dicey decisions outside of structure.
Ryan Tannehill (QB17) -- While potentially a fluke, Tannehill's seventh-year renaissance included leading the league in passing yards (1,157) and passer rating (144.4) from play-action — a sustainable model assuming Tennessee puts the band back together for one more run under emerging OC Arthur Smith.
Cam Newton (QB18) -- Newton's outlook in coach Matt Rhule's ongoing rebuild is anyone's guess following two major surgeries the past two seasons. The sheer upside he provides in two-quarterback builds, however, isn't normally available at this stage of drafts.
Kirk Cousins (QB19) -- Finally got the ball rolling with 25.6 fantasy points per game in Minnesota's first three October contests before Adam Thielen's and Dalvin Cook's injuries derailed this offense altogether. Stefon Diggs' pending absence would obviously be the worst-case scenario for Cousins' outlook.
Joe Burrow (QB20) -- Athens' own won't be empty-handed in his first year with the Bengals as the organization expects to have A.J. Green, John Ross, Tyler Boyd, Auden Tate, and Joe Mixon readily available in Week 1.
Sam Darnold (QB21) -- Flashes of off-the-cuff brilliance for the second straight year can't hide the fact the Jets are set to lose over-the-top threat Robby Anderson, LT Kelvin Beachum, OT Brandon Shell, and C Jonotthan Harrison on the open market.
Ben Roethlisberger (QB22) -- Even if Roethlisberger's a full-go off elbow surgery in his age-38 season, his lack of mobility coupled with Antonio Brown's absence remain looming question marks for what's in store.
Philip Rivers (QB23) -- Would rise (even in his deteriorated age-39 season) if rumored landing spot with the Bucs holds true. Wouldn't budge if rumored home in Washington sticks.
Tom Brady (QB24) -- Brady's production expectedly plummeted when tasked with a tougher schedule over the second half of the year, finishing among the top-12 at his position just twice from Week 7 on. Any belief he bounces back entails faith New England upgrades their offensive unit from the ground up.
Jimmy Garoppolo (QB25) -- Slyly finished as the overall QB14 despite struggling with the 22nd-most fantasy points per game (15.5) at his position. Lacks a desirable ceiling for Best-Ball formats due to San Francisco's top-four run play rate (47%) in neutral game script.
Gardner Minshew (QB26) -- The overall QB10 with a rushing floor (5.1 carries per game) to boot in his first eight starts before getting sent back to the bench in favor of Jacksonville's $88 million elephant in the room.
Tier Five
Drew Lock (QB27) -- Fantasy's QB22 > QB8 > QB31 > QB20 > QB20 behind 13.6 fantasy points per game (30th-overall) in his five starts to close the year. Lack of any rushing floor devalues him as a borderline QB2.
Dwayne Haskins (QB28) -- A Dan Snyder pick for his local ties to the Potomac, Maryland area, Ohio State DE Chase Young fits that same bill — thus allowing Haskins to start under center — since the 20-year-old EDGE played high school football just 25 minutes outside of D.C.
Mitchell Trubisky (QB29) -- Even odds to start as many games for the Bears as (fill in the blank).
Teddy Bridgewater (QB30) -- Teddy's success primarily hinged on New Orleans' YAC from behind the line of scrimmage last season as he averaged a 6.1 depth of target but 17.1 fantasy points per game in his five starts for Drew Brees. The market's best bet as a true one-year stopgap between rookies.
Derek Carr (QB31) -- Even a three-year high in fantasy points per game (15.3) couldn't sling Carr into the top-15 at his position under coach Jon Gruden. May be forced into a backup role elsewhere if Las Vegas opts to create $13.6 million in cap space by parting ways late into free agency.
Ryan Fitzpatrick (QB32) -- Fitzpatrick took down fantasy championships as the overall QB2 in Miami's last 11 games but remains nothing more than the veteran bridge between April's successor. Eyeing the 37-year-old in three-quarterback builds isn't the worst food for thought if the league's schedule release (April 17) is kind to the Dolphins out the gates.
Tua Tagovailoa (QB33) -- Whether it's Miami, Detroit, or a team to be determined, Tua projects for more than just a redshirt year if cleared by doctors during the pre-draft process.
Andy Dalton (QB34) -- Any QB-needy organizations aren't going out of there way to acquire the 10-year vet simply as the front office's 'Plan B'. He'll make a handful of starts by season's end.
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March 03, 2020 at 11:08PM
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