One of the reasons Green Bay Packers coach Matt LaFleur wants to run the ball more effectively and more often is to set up the play action pass, and he is hoping it will trigger a rejuvenation of the deep ball. That element of the offense has been on the decline in recent seasons.
The Deep Ball Project is a comprehensive breakdown of each starting quarterback's effectiveness in throwing long. It's been calculated for the last six seasons by brickwallblitz.com. The study focuses on how far the ball is thrown in the air, how tight the window is, the accuracy of the throw, whether the receiver drops the ball, the pressure on the quarterback, the sector of the field, and more. The resulting ratings tell a revealing story about Green Bay's troubles dialing long distance.
Overall, for the 2019 season, Aaron Rodgers was ranked 22nd among starting quarterbacks. That's a drop from 2018 when Rodgers was rated 17th, even then in the bottom half of the league. Keep in mind the following stats represent how far the ball was thrown in the air, not run after catch.
On passes that traveled 21 to 25 yards, Rodgers was 18th. 26 to 30 yards, Rodgers was 20th. 31 to 35 yards Rodgers was 13th. 36 to 40 yards Rodgers was 8th. Over 41 yards he was 13th. But his overall rating suffered because of a low score on accuracy and other factors.
Interestingly, Aaron seemed to have particular trouble throwing the deep ball down the left sideline. On that side of the field he ranked 27th. His highest score came on long balls down the right sideline where he stood 8th. He was 22nd over the middle.
The study shows the Packers executed the deep pass more effectively when the quarterback was under center, as opposed to being in shotgun. Rodgers was 14th in the league under center, but 22nd from the gun. This may also be a reason why LaFleur wants more of a running game influence in the offense, so that Aaron can begin more plays under center, thereby disguising the play action.
Number 12's talent for creatively making plays on the fly shows up in the stats. He actually had a little more success passing deep when under pressure than when standing in a clean pocket. Rodgers was 20th when getting heat, but just 23rd in a clean pocket.
He stood 16th when throwing long to what was defined by the study as an "open window". In other words, when the receiver was judged to be open. He was 18th throwing to a "tight window", where the receiver is judged to be well covered.
Not all of the study was bad news. Despite the mediocre rankings, Rodgers was a much more respectable fifth in the league in total deep ball passing yards. He was also tied for fifth in long ball touchdowns with 7. But you would like to see those production figures a bit higher considering Rodgers attempted the second most deep passes in the league, a whopping 80. Only loose cannon and interception machine Jameis Winston threw deep more often. (84)
The study does point out at least one mitigating factor. Aaron Rodger's overall deep ball ranking was dragged down by his performance in the last game of the regular season against Detroit. The Packers fell behind early and Arod threw deep 14 times, being judged accurate on just 3 of those throws. Take that game out and, according to the study's author, Rodgers "would have likely finished inside the top 15". That's encouraging but still a bit disappointing for the guy who, in his prime, was one of the most accurate long ball chuckers in the history of the game.
Certainly, the quarterback isn't the only one accountable. It's not like he has a roster full of bona fide deep ball threats to throw to. The only real burner is Marques Valdes Scantling, who did indeed catch a few bombs in the first half of the year. But MVS is a long strider who tends to take too long getting separation and doesn't always play the ball well in the air. Davante Adams is all-pro calibre, but more of a possession guy. No one else really qualifies as a Tyreek Hill type, a stretch the field threat. Looking to positions other than receiver, maybe Jace Sternberger will turn out to be that kind of weapon down the seam, or perhaps getting Aaron Jones deep out of the backfield.
14 wins last season means the Packers are close. Rodgers still makes around 5 to 10 phenomenal throws every season. He's still got it. Perhaps the missing element to a Super Bowl run is the return of the quick strike.
"ball" - Google News
June 29, 2020 at 06:03AM
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Pack Hopes to Regain Deep Ball Magic - Cheesehead TV
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