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Thursday, August 27, 2020

2020 Experts Fantasy Best Ball Mock Draft: Strategy tips, advice for half-point PPR leagues - Sporting News

Best ball is emerging as a popular format in fantasy football. The reason for its rise is simple: There's nothing fantasy football owners love more than the draft. That's when a team is crafted, endless opportunities exist, and sleepers can be targeted in an adrenaline-packed, hour-long span. But the agonizing weekly start 'em, sit 'em choices, waiver wire pickups, and trades? Those can be fun, but they can also be frustrating.

With best ball, fantasy owners only have to worry about the draft. They select their players, and after that, there are no transactions. You have what you have. Each week, the top performers at each position automatically are put into the lineup for the owner. Aside from the draft, the stress is relatively low, but the draft obviously takes on massive importance because of these factors.

You can prepare for best ball drafts by studying various draft strategies, but the only way to be truly ready for the draft is to test out a mock draft or two. Recently, I participated in an 18-round best ball draft with 11 other fantasy owners at Underdog Fantasy. The half-point PPR league had 18 roster spots with no defenses or kickers, and I ended up with the No. 8 overall pick.

DOMINATE YOUR DRAFT: Ultimate 2020 cheat sheet

My strategy with the eighth selection was to get a couple of strong RBs with my first two picks, then target the best players available from there. Of course, because best ball is a season-long endeavor with no transactions, I had to do a little bit more projecting with potential backfield splits, injury concerns, and sleeper picks. So, while I followed our top 200 rankings at times, I had to go with my gut in a few instances to build this team the right way.

Without further ado, here are the results of this best ball mock draft.

2020 PPR RANKINGS:
Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | Superflex | Top 200

2020 Experts Fantasy Best Ball Mock Draft: 12-Team half-point PPR league

* This draft was for a half-point PPR best ball league that starts 1 QB, 2 RBs, 3 WRs, 1 TE, 1 FLEX and has 10 bench spots

Josh Jacobs, RB, Raiders (Round 1, Pick 8). At the eighth spot, two of our top-seven RBs were still on the board. They were Nick Chubb and Jacobs. While Chubb comes in a couple of spots higher than Jacobs in our RB rankings, I went with the Las Vegas back as my choice. Jacobs doesn't have as much competition for playing time as Chubb has in Cleveland, as Jacobs' top backups are rookie Lynn Bowden Jr. and Jalen Richard. Meanwhile, Chubb has Kareem Hunt vying for playing time, and Hunt could siphon some rushing attempts from him and should be the better pass-catching option of the two. Chubb averaged three fewer touches per game when Hunt was in the lineup. Jacobs, who averaged 20.1 touches per game last season, is the safer bet to succeed in season-long formats.

Aaron Jones, RB, Packers (2.17). Chubb almost made it back to me with this pick, as receivers started to come off the board fast, but he didn't quite get there. However, that was no problem, as Jones was still available. The Packers back topped the NFL in both rushing (16) and total (19) TDs last season and figures to get the lion's share of the work in Green Bay again. Sure, they drafted AJ Dillon in the second round of the 2020 NFL Draft and have Jamaal Williams as a receiving back, but Jones has a career yards per carry average of 5.0 and helped carry the team to the NFC Championship last season. I'm not too worried about him, especially considering that he got 68 targets last year.

Jonathan Taylor, RB, Colts (3.32). This is an example of us deviating from our rankings. Currently, Taylor is only our 27th-ranked RB, but he could outperform that billing in best ball formats, where his potentially lackluster early weeks won't really hurt me as long as my other backs do their job. Taylor averaged nearly 2,200 total yards and over 18 TDs per year during his three seasons at Wisconsin. He's running behind the NFL's best offensive line and should have plenty of opportunities to post big numbers at the position. He's being undervalued a bit, as he has true RB1 upside if he can take the starting job away from Marlon Mack sooner rather than later.

Courtland Sutton, WR, Broncos (4.41). Last year, Sutton finished 17th in the NFL in yards per catch with a mark of 15.4. He ranked 15th among WRs in total targets with 124, and he did all of this despite playing with three different quarterbacks (Joe Flacco, Brandon Allen, and Drew Lock). With Lock set to be the starter from the get-go, Sutton should have a chance to build a better rapport with the second-year passer. If he can grab more than six scores after totaling 1,112 receiving yards last year, he could easily become a WR1, so getting him at this juncture is a great value. 

Kareem Hunt, RB, Browns (5.56). I got a little RB-happy at this point because of the values that were on the board at the position. Among them was Hunt. As mentioned earlier, Hunt took some touches from Chubb last year after he served an eight-game suspension and could be a strong pass-catching back again in '20. He would've logged 928 total yards and six TDs last year at his pace over a full season. Running behind a better offensive line thanks to the additions of Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin, Hunt may have a chance to eclipse 1,000 total yards. And if Chubb were to get hurt, Hunt would instantly become an RB1. Perhaps going with a WR like T.Y. Hilton or Keenan Allen here would've created a more balanced team, but Hunt was too good to pass up with this selection.

Devin Singletary, RB, Bills (6.65). Here's another amazing value at the RB position. Singletary checks in as our 30th-best player overall in standard formats. Yet he's still on the board in Round 6. Singletary's 5.1 yards per carry were tied for the third-most among RBs from last year. He only had four total TDs and 180 touches, but with Frank Gore no longer around to vulture TDs and take carries away from him, Singletary's ceiling is sky-high. We don't necessarily need a fifth RB this early, but by drafting Singletary, we have a great insurance policy in case one of our top guys gets injured. And it's possible that he could outplay Taylor or Hunt and earn a spot in the lineup on a weekly basis.

2020 STANDARD FANTASY RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker | Superflex | Top 200

Deshaun Watson, QB, Texans (7.89). Watson was the last of our top-five QBs on the board, so I wanted to make sure I snapped him up here. Despite playing behind a poor-to-mediocre offense line the past three seasons, Watson has been a steady fantasy contributor. Last year, he logged a career-high 34 total touchdowns, and he scrambles effectively and often enough to make an impact with his legs in fantasy. It will be interesting to see how he does with DeAndre Hopkins now gone, but the team still has plenty of good receivers available. Plus, the absence of Hopkins may open up some more designed red-zone runs for him if the Texans have trouble manufacturing TDs in that area.

Deebo Samuel, WR, 49ers (8.89). Waiting until this point to draft my second receiver was certainly a risky move, especially in a league that starts three at the WR position. Picking Samuel may have been even riskier. The second-year player is dealing with a foot injury that may hold him out of the start of the season. It's unclear exactly how much time he'll need to heal, but if he hits the PUP list, he'll miss six weeks at the least. But once he's' back, he should be a rock-solid target. As a rookie, Samuel racked up 961 scrimmage yards and six TDs while averaging 14.1 yards per catch. He'll be the No. 1 receiver in San Francisco once he's healthy and can rack up some rushing yards, as well, thanks to how Kyle Shanahan utilizes Samuel on offense.

Golden Tate, WR, Giants (9.104). Tate was a reliable pass-catching weapon for the Giants last year and averaged 13.8 yards per catch, his highest total since his final year with the Seahawks back in '13. He also ranked 29th in FPPG among WRs, but he flew under the radar because he played in just 11 games on the year. If Tate can stay on the field for the whole season -- he should considering that most of his time missed was due to suspension -- he should be a very good WR3. He may not have as much upside as fellow Giants wide-out Darius Slayton, but with him off the board here, Tate is an excellent consolation prize with a high floor.

Marlon Mack, RB, Colts (10.113). At this point in the draft, I couldn't resist Marlon Mack. With Jonathan Taylor already on my roster, selecting Mack should virtually guarantee that I have the Colts' top back in '20. Landing top handcuffs is critical in best-ball formats, and considering how great Indy's blocking is, that should be a recipe for success this season. Mack racked up 1,091 rushing yards and eight TDs in 14 games (12 starts) last season for the Colts. If not for the presence of Taylor, he probably would be viewed as a high-end RB2. He checks in at 73 in our top 200 rankings, so grabbing him at 113 could be a mega-steal.

Drew Brees, QB, Saints (11.128). As good as the value on Mack was, a ton of WR talent came off the board in the 15 picks between Mack and Drew Brees. My plan had been to target some sleeper WRs here, but after so many came off the board, I elected to take my second QB instead. Brees is 41, but he's still an efficient QB with plenty of TD upside. He has led the league in completion percentage the past three seasons and has averaged 31 passing TDs per 16 games during that span. He can be trusted along with Deshaun Watson to make a dynamic QB tandem.

Preston Williams, WR, Dolphins (12.137). Preston Williams is a good sleeper pickup for best ball purposes. The undrafted rookie came on as Miami's No. 2 receiver last year and racked up 60 targets for 32 catches, 428 yards, and three TDs. He did tear his ACL midway through the season, but he has been progressing well in his return from that. Even if he's not on the field to open the season, he has plenty of upside and could contribute down the line in a stretch run to the fantasy playoffs. 

2020 FANTASY SLEEPERS:
6 QBs  | 16 RBs  | 14 WRs  | 10 TEs  | 5 D/STs  | One from each team

Jack Doyle, TE, Colts (13.152). There's a lot to like about Doyle this year: He's the top tight end in a TE-friendly offense, and Philip Rivers, who loves throwing to TEs, is now in town. Doyle led the Colts in red-zone targets last year with 13 and ranked 13th in the NFL in total targets (72), so he should reap the benefits of Rivers' presence. That should give Doyle good TD potential, especially since he'll no longer have to compete with Eric Ebron for scores. At this point, Doyle is the most consistent TE left, and he could easily turn into a top-10 player at the position. 

Michael Pittman Jr., WR, Colts (14.161). Evidently, I like the Colts a lot over a season-long span, which makes sense given their relatively easy schedule. I also desperately need a wideout who will be on the field to start the season, and Pittman Jr. qualifies. The rookie figures to be the No. 2 receiver in Indy after catching 101 passes for 1,275 yards and 11 TDs in his final year at USC. He may not rip off huge chunks of yardage like T.Y. Hilton and might only be second-at-best to Doyle in the red zone, but Pittman's 6-4 frame should give him a chance to be a good contested-catch receiver for the Colts. Philip Rivers liked throwing up 50/50 balls to Mike Williams in Los Angeles, so maybe Pittman, the 34th-overall pick in the '20 draft, can take on that role and rack up some catches.

Larry Fitzgerald, WR, Cardinals (15.176). Fitzgerald is no longer the same player he once was, but he is still fairly consistent He has been targeted 100-plus times in all 16 of his NFL seasons and has only missed a total of six games in that span. At 37, we can't expect him to be a starting option every week, but he has averaged 10.6 yards per catch and 5.3 TDs per year the past three seasons. That's good enough to take a flier on him in hopes that he becomes a favorite red-zone weapon of Kyler Murray.

Kirk Cousins, QB, Vikings (16.185). You don't need a third quarterback in best ball, but if you can grab a solid one late, it doesn't hurt to draft one. That's exactly what Cousins is. He ranked 18th in fantasy points among QBs last season, but he has shown top-12 potential at times. He's a good insurance policy in case either Deshaun Watson or Drew Brees gets hurt and could have some weeks as the team's top QB.

Alshon Jeffery, WR, Eagles (17.200). How many injured receivers can I take in a draft? Apparently, the answer is a lot. Jeffery is dealing with a Lisfranc problem, and it's unclear when he'll return to action. He could do nothing this season, but he may develop into a good TD threat if he gets on the field. He grabbed four scores from inside the 10 last year, tied for the most on the Eagles with Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert. There weren't a lot of players with upside remaining on the board, so Jeffery made the cut as the ultimate swing for the fences pick.

Will Dissly, TE, Seahawks (18.209). Uncle Will is averaging 50 catches for 669 yards and 10 TDs per 16 games for his career. The problem is that he hasn't been able to stay healthy because of a patellar tendon injury in his rookie year and a torn Achilles' last year. That said, if he comes back healthy, he can be productive for Seattle, provided that he can take some snaps away from Greg Olsen.

DRAFT STRATEGY AND RANKINGS TIERS: 
Quarterback | Running Back | Wide Receiver | Tight End

By the end of the draft, this is what my team looked like:

Quarterbacks

Deshaun Watson, Texans
Drew Brees, Saints
Kirk Cousins, Vikings

Running Backs

Josh Jacobs, Raiders
Aaron Jones, Packers
Jonathan Taylor, Colts
Kareem Hunt, Browns
Devin Singletary, Bills
Marlon Mack, Colts

Wide Receivers

Courtland Sutton, Broncos
Deebo Samuel, 49ers
Golden Tate, Giants
Preston Williams, Dolphins
Michael Pittman Jr., Colts
Larry Fitzgerald, Cardinals
Alshon Jeffery, Eagles

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle, Colts
Will Dissly, Seahawks

There are two things that stand out about this team overall. First, the running back room is absolutely stacked. My talent is second to none at the position and I should have at least four top-24 RBs on my team between Jacobs, Jones, Singletary, and the combination of Taylor and Mack. Hunt is more of a Wild Card, but he could be an RB1 if Nick Chubb misses any time, so he was well worth the pick.

That said, because of my tendency to select RBs early, my WR corps is thin. Sutton should be a stud, but beyond him, there are some serious questions. A lot of my success in this unit will depend on how Samuel progresses as he battles back from a foot injury. If he misses a few weeks, I'll have to rely on some lower-level options and sleepers, which won't be ideal. If he's back soon though, the group should be in decent shape, especially if either Williams or Pittman Jr. pans out.

If I learned anything from this draft, it's that best ball drafters should be more balanced at the beginning that I was. I should've taken more than one WR in the first seven rounds and though I could reap the rewards with strong, consistent RB play, my WR corps is just one injury away from being a complete disaster.

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August 28, 2020 at 12:54AM
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2020 Experts Fantasy Best Ball Mock Draft: Strategy tips, advice for half-point PPR leagues - Sporting News
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