Five Things Ravens Can Do to Get the Offense Going
In the Ravens' first game after their bye week last season, they hosted an undefeated team that had the No. 1 defense in the league.
The Ravens scored 37 points against the New England Patriots that night, as the offense shifted into a higher gear. Baltimore would score 40-plus points in each of their next three games.
The Ravens are hoping history can repeat itself when the undefeated Pittsburgh Steelers and their No. 1 defense visit M&T Bank Stadium on Sunday. Just like last year, the Ravens are facing a formidable opponent coming off a bye.
What does the Ravens offense — which has yet to click the way it did during the second half of last season — need to do to get untracked?
The Baltimore Sun's Jonas Shaffer analyzed game film and used Sports Info Solutions data — including expected points added, a measure of efficiency that accounts for situational factors such as down, distance and field position — to come up with five suggestions:
Keep taking shots downfield.
"After hitting 35.6% of his 'deep' throws in 2019 — attempts where the target depth was at least 20 yards — Jackson is 5-for-21 (23.8%) in 2020," Shaffer wrote. "On passes of 30-plus air yards, he's 1-for-7, with his one completion coming in Week 1 on a pass to wide receiver Marquise 'Hollywood' Brown. He was 7-for-19 on such throws last year.
"The NFL is a copycat league, and the Ravens should expect more defenses to move up their safeties and crowd the box, eager to take away the running game. That could make Jackson's intermediate throws, where his accuracy's actually improved (65.8% on passes between 10 and 19 yards), more difficult. But with the speed of receivers like Brown, Miles Boykin and Devin Duvernay, he'll continue to have favorable looks downfield, as he often did against Washington and the Kansas City Chiefs. He just has to hit them."
Pass more on first down.
"If teams are keen on stopping the Ravens' ground game, the answer is simple and effective: play-action," Shaffer wrote. "Run fakes benefit every passing attack — just ask the Tennessee Titans' Ryan Tannehill, who turns into a Pro Bowl-level player whenever running back Derrick Henry pretends to take a handoff.
"Research by FiveThirtyEight has shown that linebackers respond to the 11th play-action fake they see in a game about as unproductively as they do their first. Until defenses respect Jackson's arm, the Ravens should capitalize on how much they fear his legs."
Fix empty-back plays or ditch them.
"In empty formations last season — only Jackson in the backfield, with five receivers typically surrounding him — the Ravens were a juggernaut," Shaffer wrote. "Jackson led the NFL in EPA per play on drop-backs, with 1,000-plus combined yards on 122 opportunities (869 passing yards on 101 attempts and 170 yards on 16 carries, plus five sacks).
"This season, the Ravens' cheat code just hasn't worked. And they've tried it, a lot: Almost a quarter of Jackson's drop-backs have come in empty formations. But only the Indianapolis Colts' Philip Rivers has been less efficient, according to EPA."
Get Jackson help vs. man coverage.
"Maybe no drop-off is more jarring than Jackson's production against Cover 0, an all-out blitz scheme in which defenders have no safety help in coverage," Shaffer wrote. "Here, Jackson still has gotten the ball out quickly, with just one sack on 13 drop-backs. But his completion percentage has fallen from 76.9% to 58.3%, and even his completions are averaging just 4.4 yards per play, down from 7.9 yards last year.
"A rebound is likely coming, but it's in man coverage where the Ravens' coaching staff and supporting pieces need to help him the most. Jackson has to identify open receivers and elude pressure, of course. But linemen have to keep the pocket clean. Receivers have to get open downfield. And if they can't, [Offensive Coordinator Greg] Roman needs to call man-coverage beaters — pick plays, stacked-receiver formations, athletic mismatches — that will help."
Use more misdirection in the running game.
"On zone-read plays, edge defenders can sometimes force Jackson to hand the ball off inside, where the Ravens have struggled at times to get a good push," Shaffer wrote. "And when Jackson's taken the ball himself and broken outside, second-level players have typically strung out his runs, not letting him turn the corner. After averaging 8.2 yards on outside runs last season, Jackson's down to 5.7 this year.
"The Ravens' use of pre-snap motion is one form of leverage; tight end Nick Boyle and fullback Patrick Ricard are good enough blockers to create gaps on the fly. But misdirection could feature more prominently in Roman's playbook over the next two months if defenses play the Ravens the same way."
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