After a year of campaigning, an estimated $6 billion spent on the presidential race and countless speeches, rallies and polls, the momentous election of 2020 is upon us. Held in the middle of a once-in-a-century pandemic, with a deeply polarized country and a teetering economy, the contest between Democrat Joe Biden and Republican President Donald Trump is arguably the most consequential race for the White House since 1932, when Franklin Roosevelt offered the country a sharply different course than President Herbert Hoover during the Great Depression.
Back then, the results came in on the radio. Today, many Americans will be watching online and on TV.
Here are five things to look for tonight:
1) When will we know who won?
It could be later tonight. Or it might drag on for days, even weeks in a closer-than-expected result. Simply put, there are two likely scenarios.
Scenario #1: Biden wins early. The former vice president is currently leading in the polls in all the states that Hillary Clinton won four years ago, and is tied or narrowly ahead in several key states in the southern half of the country that Trump won in 2016. They are Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, Arizona and Texas.
Florida law allows election officials to start processing mail-in ballots starting three weeks before Election Day. Georgia and Arizona allow it two weeks before, and North Carolina and Texas generally allow it as ballots come in.
That’s key. It means a large number of the votes in those states have already been counted and will be reported this evening. If Biden wins any of those states, particularly Florida with its 29 electoral votes or further north, Ohio, Trump’s chances of re-election will begin to crumble because polls show Biden has solid leads in key Midwestern states like Michigan and Wisconsin. That’s why James Carville, the architect of Bill Clinton’s 1992 White House victory, predicted this week that Biden could win the election not long after 10 p.m. East Coast time, or 7 p.m. California time. His thinking: Trump has to hold every one of those Sunbelt states, and that’s a tall order when they are all so close, and Democrats have turned out in historic numbers for early voting.
How big was the early vote? Roughly 100 million people have already voted early or mailed in ballots, and polls show the majority of those are Democrats. What isn’t known is how independents will vote, how many Republicans will show up on Election Day, and how strong the Election Day turnout for Democrats will be.
If Trump loses one or more states in the Sunbelt, or Ohio, you can go to bed early. Biden will almost certainly be the next president.
Scenario #2: The race is closer than expected. Under this potential outcome, if Trump holds all of those Sunbelt states and Ohio, Biden can still win. But it will be a longer, rougher march with little room for error.
Biden is trying to rebuild the “Blue Wall” of Democratic strongholds in the Midwest that Trump narrowly won in 2016. They are Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. If the former vice president wins those and holds the states that Hillary Clinton won, he will win the election by a margin of 278 to 260 electoral votes.
The trouble, however, is that those Blue Wall states are expected to count ballots slowly, particularly Pennsylvania.
Why? Unlike many other states, including California, Pennsylvania has a law prohibiting election workers from beginning to process mail-in ballots until Election Day. They can’t even start opening envelopes or checking signatures. About 2.4 million people have voted early in Pennsylvania, or 40% of the total who voted four years ago. All over the state, election workers are expecting to be inundated with ballots, and the state does not have much of a history of mail-in voting. Some rural counties don’t plan to start counting mail-in ballots until Wednesday. Pennsylvania’s Democratic governor, Tom Wolf, asked Republicans who control the state legislature months ago to allow the count to begin early. But they have refused. Michigan and Wisconsin have similar laws blocking counting of absentee ballots until Election Day.
Biden leads in the polls in all three Blue Wall states, particularly Michigan and Wisconsin, where his lead is roughly 8 points in each. In Pennsylvania, it’s 5 points. Trump has said in the closing days of the campaign that he will sue to block the counting of votes in Pennsylvania and other states after Election Day.
The chances of victory in such a suit would seem remote. States always count ballots after Election Day, and often don’t certify a winner for weeks, even though TV networks project a winner based on the size of the lead and the number of ballots left to be counted. Also, a fair number of states allow ballots that come in after Election Day to still be counted as long as they are postmarked by Election Day, including ballots from service members in the military who are overseas.
Biden would still likely prevail if he had in fact received the most votes. But the lawsuits, and Trump’s claim the election was being stolen, particularly if he was leading in any of the three Blue Wall states on Election Night, could cause social unrest and a showdown that would make the Florida election of 2000 seem mild.
One other scenario: The polls are wildly wrong, and Trump wins one or more states that Clinton won in 2016, like Minnesota or New Hampshire. Or the president has a much stronger showing with Black or Latino voters than expected, which could unexpectedly tip a state like Pennsylvania, Michigan or Nevada into his column. Most experts say they do not see that trend in state voter surveys or in the more detailed congressional-district polls that campaigns are running. Trump’s best path to victory is to win the Sunbelt and take Pennsylvania. But leading election forecasters at publications like the Economist and Five-Thirty-Eight say the chances of that are only about 10%.
Closing time for polls in key states (Pacific time):
– 4 pm: Georgia and most of Florida.
– 4:30 pm: North Carolina and Ohio.
– 5 pm: Pennsylvania, most of Texas, most of Michigan, the Florida Panhandle.
– 6 pm: Wisconsin, Minnesota, Arizona, the rest of Texas and Michigan
– 7 pm: Iowa, Nevada.
– 8 pm: California
2) What are the chances that Trump pulls off a victory again against the odds?
Four years ago, Donald Trump shocked the world when he upset Hillary Clinton, winning the key states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin by a razor-thin margin of 1% or less to prevail in the Electoral College even as he lost the national popular vote by nearly 3 million votes.
Democrats and most political pundits were blindsided and stunned that night. So was Trump. Expecting defeat, his campaign had not even prepared a victory speech. This year, polling averages show Democrat Joe Biden with an 8-point national lead, more than twice the 3-point margin Clinton had four years earlier. In fact, Biden heads into Election Day with the largest polling lead of any candidate since Bill Clinton’s 13-point lead over Bob Dole the day before the 1996 election.
The irony is that many people think the polls were wrong in 2016. They weren’t. Clinton led by 3 to 4 points in national polling averages. She ended up with 48% of the total vote to Trump’s 46%. But there wasn’t enough quality polling done in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin in the final month, she failed to focus on them enough, and he won a narrow victory.
Will there be a repeat surprise? Perhaps. But many things have changed in the past four years. Pollsters have adjusted their polls to account for voters’ education levels, having underestimated the turnout of white voters without college degrees four years ago. Biden has raised more money than Trump, and unlike Clinton, maintained a laser-like focus on Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin with rallies, polls and TV ads. He has two events in Pennsylvania today.
Biden’s favorability ratings are higher than Clinton’s were. He is leading among seniors, suburban voters and independents — all groups that Trump won four years ago. He has a commanding lead with women voters, larger than Clinton did. There is no strong third party challenger. There was no “October Surprise.”
Voters know Trump much better now after four years than they did in 2016. The economy is struggling. And perhaps most important, the coronavirus pandemic — which has killed more than 230,000 Americans, four times as many as died in the Vietnam war — made the race a referendum on Trump, and has caused historically high numbers of people to vote early and by mail. The roughly 100 million Americans who voted early is historic. It’s two-thirds of the expected final turnout. A recent CBS News survey found Biden leading 66-27% among people who said they have already voted, with Trump ahead 69-32% among voters who said they plan to vote on Election Day.
Do the math, as Andrew Yang would say. Biden’s 66% of two-thirds is more than Trump’s 69% of one-third. Most political scientists expect Biden to win.
But it’s not a sure thing. Trump could win re-election if his base turns out in massive numbers today, or if Biden supporters fail to deliver sufficient margins in key cities like Philadelphia, Detroit, Phoenix or Miami. If Trump holds critical states he won in 2016, like Florida, Arizona, Georgia, Ohio and North Carolina, he could eke out a win by upsetting Biden in Pennsylvania.
One thing is certain, however. This race has barely changed all year.
Five months ago in June, Biden had an 8-point lead, based on Five Thirty Eight’s national average of polls. Since then, there have been presidential debates, a new Supreme Court justice, tens of thousands of deaths from COVID-19 and other earthshaking news. But Biden’s lead remains 8 points today. Trump has never been ahead. Voters appear to have made up their minds. Biden is steady at 51% and Trump is stuck at 43%. Almost nobody is undecided. It appears that Trump, who has embraced his most loyal followers but done little to reach out to other voters, quite likely doesn’t have enough people on his side to win this election.
We should know for sure soon.
3) Who will control the Senate?
Winning the White House is the big prize. But close behind is the U.S. Senate.
The party that controls the Senate can either approve — or block — the president’s main legislative proposals, judges and cabinet nominees. If Joe Biden wins the White House, but Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky maintains his majority in the Senate, it will be difficult for Biden to turn his campaign promises into law, from raising the minimum wage to passing laws to reduce climate change.
Currently, Republicans have a 53-47 advantage in the Senate. If Biden wins, Democrats will need to pick up three seats to take control. That’s because in a 50-50 tie, Vice President Kamala Harris would be the tie-breaker. If Trump wins, Democrats would need to net four seats to take the majority.
Simply put, Democrats have a better-than-even chance to retake the Senate. But it could be close. Here’s why.
Democrats have two almost certain pick-up opportunities, in Colorado where incumbent Republican Sen. Cory Gardner has consistently trailed former Democratic Gov. John Hickenlooper in a state which is solid blue, and in Arizona, where Democratic challenger Mark Kelly, a former Space Shuttle commander and Navy combat pilot, has steadily led in polls and fundraising in his attempt to oust Republican Martha McSally, a former Air Force pilot who Arizona’s Republican governor appointed to serve out the remainder of the late-John McCain’s term.
McSally has lost ground with independent voters for her unwavering support of Trump. It was repaid last week with humiliation when Trump visited Arizona, she arrived to speak and the president yelled to the crowd: “Come on. Quick. You got one minute! One minute, Martha! They don’t want to hear this, Martha. Come on. Let’s go. Quick!”
The third pickup? Look to Maine. Incumbent Sen. Susan Collins has taken sustained criticism for her support of Trump and for voting to place Brett Kavanaugh on the U.S. Supreme Court, and trails Sara Gideon, a Democrat who is speaker of the Maine House of Representatives.
So that’s three, right? Not so fast. In deep-red Alabama, incumbent Democrat Doug Jones is likely to lose re-election after narrowly beating fringe Republican candidate Roy Moore two years ago to serve out the remainder of Jeff Sessions’ term after Sessions had resigned to become Trump’s attorney general.
That leaves North Carolina. Democrat Cal Cunningham, an attorney, former state senator and lieutenant colonel in the Army Reserve, seemed to be heading for a win over incumbent Republican Senator Thom Tillis. With a growing number of tech workers, North Carolina is a purple state that Obama won in 2008, and Tillis was ensnared in allegations of insider stock trading. But last month, text messages came out showing Cunningham had an affair with a woman who is not his wife. His lead has narrowed from about 5 points to about 3 points.
In short, if Biden prevails, wins in North Carolina, Maine and Arizona give Democrats control of the Senate. But to make major changes, like abolishing the filibuster or adding new states, they will likely need a few more seats.
Where might those come from? Look next to Iowa, which polls show is a toss-up between first-term GOP Senator Joni Ernst and real estate developer Theresa Greenfield, a Democrat.
Beyond that? Montana is next, where Republican incumbent Steve Daines is very narrowly ahead in a tight race against Democratic Gov. Steve Bullock.
And then there’s South Carolina, where Democrat Jamie Harrison has shattered fundraising records, hauling in $107 million in a campaign to unseat incumbent Republican Lindsey Graham. Trump won South Carolina easily, but polls show Harrison could do the unthinkable if there’s a massive turnout in the African-American community and a conservative third party candidate takes just enough votes away from Graham. But Graham remains favored.
Longshot pickups for Democrats? Keep your eye on Alaska, Kansas and Texas. Georgia also has two Senate races where Democrats have a decent chance. But if no candidate gets more than 50% of the vote now, those races go to a January runoff, which would have lower turnout and favor Republicans.
4) Will Pelosi keep her gavel?
Almost certainly. Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco is considered very likely to retain her majority in the U.S. House of Representatives. Polls show that the Democrats are poised to expand their current majority, which is 232-197 seats, by roughly 10 to 15 new seats.
Although Republicans have a few promising pickup opportunities in rural Minnesota and New Mexico, the general shift of college-educated suburban voters — particularly women — away from Trump is killing the GOP’s chances of retaking the House this year. Added to the GOP’s woes: Robust Democratic fundraising, from Pelosi’s big-ticket efforts to groups like ActBlue that raise millions in small donations. All that cash has given Democratic candidates more resources than Republicans in many of the most competitive districts.
As a result, Democrats are expected to do well in suburban areas across the country, particularly in Texas, New York and Georgia, and around the cul-de-sacs and soccer fields on the outskirts of cities like Phoenix, Cincinnati and St. Louis. They also are favored to pick up at least two seats in North Carolina because a judge ordered district maps redrawn.
In California, where Democrats outnumber Republicans 45 to 7 in the House delegation, the most lopsided delegation since 1883, there are three races that could be close.
First is the 25th district near Los Angeles, which includes Simi Valley, Palmdale and San Fernando Valley. Democrat Katie Porter resigned last November over sexual misconduct allegations and after intimate photos of her were published online. Republican Mike Garcia, a Navy pilot, won a special election for the seat in May. But Garcia’s tenure might be short. Assemblywoman Christy Smith, whom he beat, is back for a rematch. But this time, turnout will be much higher because of the presidential race, and polls show her with a narrow lead in the district, where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans 39-32%.
Meanwhile, Democrat T.J. Cox, a Walnut Creek native and chemical engineer who won a razor-thin upset two years ago over three-term incumbent Republican David Valadao in California’s 21st district (running down the San Joaquin Valley from Firebaugh to Bakersfield) has a tight re-election effort. He’s being challenged by Valadao again. The GOP is hoping for a rare pickup in one of the more conservative parts of dark blue California.
Finally, remember Duncan Hunter? He was the San Diego County Republican congressman who pleaded guilty in December to campaign finance violations and was sentenced to 11 months in prison after prosecutors charged that he and his wife spent more than $200,000 in campaign donations on exotic vacations, home repairs, private school tuition, his extramarital affairs with five women, including lobbyists, and an airline flight for the family’s pet rabbit. His former seat in the 50th congressional district has been vacant since he resigned in disgrace in January. Former Republican congressman Darrell Issa and Democrat Ammar Campa-Najjar are locked in a close race, but polls show Issa has the edge in the district, where Republicans have a 9-point registration advantage over Democrats.
5) Will the pandemic be fatal for new taxes?
California voters often approve taxes and bonds. Particularly in the liberal Bay Area and LA region, money to fund schools, parks, firefighting, water projects and roads regularly gets the green light. And in a normal year, a presidential race where the Democrat holds a 30-point lead in the polls over the Republican, like right now, would be the ideal time to put a tax measure on the ballot in California. A big turnout = lots of young people and renters voting. And that normally = yes on new taxes.
But this year is different. California’s economy, like every other state’s, is struggling mightily from the coronavirus pandemic. The travel, restaurant, retail and commercial real estate industries are hemorrhaging billions of dollars. And with record levels of unemployment this year, the state has run up big deficits paying more in benefits to laid-off workers, while tax revenues are hamstrung.
In California’s March primary, voters rejected 62% of the 239 local tax measures on the ballot. They also said no to Prop 13, a $15 billion statewide bond for school construction that had the backing of Gov. Gavin Newsom, the California Chamber of Commerce and the state’s major unions.
Now there are another 245 local tax measures on ballots around the state.
Among the most visible locally is Measure RR, an eighth-cent sales tax increase in Santa Clara, San Mateo and San Francisco counties to raise $100 million for Caltrain. There are also several half-cent sales tax measures in Contra Costa County, Alameda County, Orinda, San Pablo and Concord to boost general funds in the East Bay.
San Francisco’s Measure A would approve $487 million in bonds for the homeless and parks programs. Oakland schools are seeking a $735 million bond, Berkeley is asking for a new 50-cent-per ride fee on rides-sharing companies like Uber and Lyft, and the Santa Clara Valley Water District and Santa Clara Valley Open Space Authority are both asking for their existing parcel taxes to be extended with no sunset date.
But by far the biggest tax measure in California this fall is Proposition 15. Mostly funded by unions, it would require commercial properties whose owners have more than $3 million in holdings to be re-assessed more regularly based on their market value, not their purchase price. That would raise property taxes — currently kept lower by Prop 13 — on nearly every large business in California. Supporters, including the governor, say it wouldn’t affect residential property taxes, and that industries, like oil refineries and large factories, rarely change hands, and pay far too low a rate. The extra $12 billion a year that could be raised could do a lot to improve California schools and local governments, they say. But opponents argue that the current economic climate is the wrong time to hit businesses with higher taxes.
The most recent polls have Prop 15 barely ahead, clinging to 49% yes, with about 45% no.
There’s also Prop 14, which asks voters to renew bond funding for stem cell research to the tune of $5.5 billion. Will they be as generous as in 2004 when they first approved $3 billion for the same cause?
Stay tuned.
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Election 2020: Five things to watch for tonight - The Mercury News
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