When it was revealed this past offseason that the NFL would be adding two additional playoff spots, there were mixed reactions. On one hand, adding another team per conference in the postseason certainly adds excitement, but on the other, only one team would get a first-round bye and there are certain years where that added playoff spot would not necessarily add extra competition. Take last season, for example; not many people would be excited to watch a .500 Pittsburgh Steelers team continue to play without Ben Roethlisberger, or a struggling Los Angeles Rams team. This year, however, is different. We need that extra spot in the playoffs -- especially when it comes to the AFC.
There are five 10-5 teams in the AFC entering the final week of the regular season, and one club is going to be on the outside looking in when the playoff bracket is finally established. If the Baltimore Ravens, Indianapolis Colts, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans and Miami Dolphins all win this Sunday -- which I deem as likely -- then it will be the Colts who are given a long offseason. They would become just the third 11-win team in NFL history to miss the playoffs. The Colts could get in if they win and one of their fellow AFC playoff hopefuls loses, so all is not lost just yet in Indy, but are the Colts better at this point in the season than a few of these other 10-5 teams? And could they be a candidate to make a deep postseason run?
Below, we will rank the five 10-5 teams and examine which ones have the best chance to make a deep run in the postseason. But first, let's take a look at their chances to make the playoffs, win the Super Bowl according to William Hill Sportsbook and then their chances to win the Super Bowl according to SportsLine data scientist Stephen Oh's simulations.
| Team | Playoff Sim% | WH Win Super Bowl | Win Super Bowl Sim% |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Ravens |
90.4% |
+1200 (7.7%) |
7.05% |
|
Titans |
88.5% |
+2500 (3.8%) |
2.50% |
|
Colts |
76.2% |
+3000 (3.2%) |
2.39% |
|
Browns |
73.4% |
+5000 (2%) |
1.03% |
|
Dolphins |
71.5% |
+5000 (2%) |
0.88% |
5. Miami Dolphins
It's hard not to love Brian Flores and his defense, but this Dolphins team might be a year away from being able to make a run in the postseason. You also have to wonder what's going on with the quarterback situation. During the Dolphins' Week 16 matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders, Tua Tagovailoa completed 17 of 22 passes for just 94 yards and a touchdown before he was benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick. "Fitzmagic" then threw for 182 yards and a touchdown while leading the Dolphins on a miraculous comeback which was capped by an absurd no-look pass for a gain of 34 yards, and then a game-winning field goal. Yes, Fitzpatrick is a great "relief pitcher," but I don't know how that will work in the playoffs. Miami's offense was sporadic down the back half of the schedule, which is why I think the Dolphins aren't ready to shock the world just yet.
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4. Indianapolis Colts
It's so unfortunate that the Colts are likely going to miss out on the playoffs because they were the only team in the NFL to lose to the Jacksonville Jaguars -- in the season opener! I understand that's not the lone reason Indy finds itself in a precarious spot, but it's hard not to look back at Week 1 and wonder what could have been. When you look at the Colts' schedule, they have won just three out of seven games this season against teams still eligible for the playoffs. While injuries hurt them during their most recent loss to the Steelers, they still blew a 24-7 lead to a team that struggled to move the ball against the lowly Cincinnati Bengals the week prior. After Roethlisberger failed to throw for 200 yards in his past two matchups, he exploded for a season-high 342 yards and three touchdowns against Indy, and did so with a concerning knee injury. I don't see the Colts making a deep postseason run if they somehow make it in.
3. Cleveland Browns
The Browns deserve plenty of credit for what they were able to accomplish this season. They put together their first double-digit win campaign since 2007 and first-year head coach Kevin Stefanski has established one of the best rushing offenses in the league. When it comes to their status as legitimate contenders, however, some questions do remain. How many good wins have the Browns recorded this year? They took down the Colts, 32-23, in Week 5 and then blew past the Titans in Week 13 by a score of 41-35. Those are pretty good victories considering that they were against two opponents mentioned in this list, but they have more bad losses than good wins. They were swept by the Ravens, lost to the Steelers by 31 points, lost to the Raiders by double digits and then of course fell to the New York Jets this past week. It's true that Baker Mayfield didn't have any wide receivers, but that's not what caused him to fumble three times during the game. If this team can establish tempo with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt and ride them to victories, then they could surprise people in the playoffs. I still think that they are just one year away from major success -- when everyone is back healthy.
2. Tennessee Titans
The Titans made it all the way to the AFC Championship game last year thanks to the heroics of Derrick Henry. They now have that postseason experience, which is why I have them ahead of Cleveland on this list. Last year, they rushed past the New England Patriots and upset the Ravens, but then ran into a buzzsaw that was the Kansas City Chiefs. This team reminds me a lot of last year's team, and that's not necessarily a good thing. The Titans fail to generate pass rush and also struggle to cover downfield. They rank dead last in the league with 15 total sacks and have the fifth-worst passing defense with an average of 271.9 passing yards allowed per game. We saw that on full display this past Sunday, when they were throttled by the Green Bay Packers, 40-14. That's why I don't think they will win the Super Bowl this year, but they are capable of winning one or two postseason games. If the Titans get out to an early lead, they can dominate clock with Henry and then just slowly wear you down. I view Ryan Tannehill as the X-factor for how the Titans will fare in the playoffs this year. He completed just 15 total passes in Tennessee's first two postseason games last year, so could we potentially see a more balanced offensive attack in the playoffs this time around? Will it help or hurt the Titans? It should be fascinating to watch.
1. Baltimore Ravens
I agree with Oh's numbers in the sense that the Ravens have a much better chance to win the Super Bowl than any of the four other 10-5 teams. It doesn't seem too long ago when the Ravens were dealing with their three weeks in hell. They were upset by the Patriots, lost to the Titans in overtime and then dealt with a COVID-19 outbreak that led to their third straight loss against the Steelers. The Ravens were able to rebound after that series of unfortunate events, however, and that's what matters. Baltimore won its next four games -- including a wild shootout in Cleveland -- and it appears the Ravens will make the postseason for the third straight year. While their last two regular-season wins over the Jaguars and the New York Giants aren't going to impress anyone, they were still able to bounce back after a rough stretch and they are currently on their longest win streak of the season. That's important for a potential contender entering the playoffs, as momentum can be everything. I also like that J.K. Dobbins has finally become a legitimate part of the offensive game plan. He has recorded double digit-touches in each of the last five games he has played in, and has scored a touchdown in each of the past five contests as well. Lamar Jackson and Co. have thought about that playoff loss they suffered last season for a full year now, and they know not to take anything for granted.
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December 30, 2020 at 10:12PM
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AFC playoff race: Ranking the five 10-5 teams and their chances of making a deep postseason run - CBS Sports
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