Inflation risk intensifies, Yellen clarifies comments, and India isolation.
Price rises
Whether it's corn, iron ore, lumber or oil, commodity prices are surging as large parts of the global economy reopen after the pandemic. Purchasing managers survey data highlighted rising input prices as manufacturers rush to keep up with accelerating consumer demand. The potential for a jump in inflation and a response from central banks topped the list of concerns of money managers surveyed by Bank of America Corp. Policy makers at the Federal Reserve maintain that any rise in the rate of inflation would be temporary.
Yellen walkback
Market sensitivity to anything that looks like inflation, or a response to it, was laid bare yesterday when Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen suggested that interest rates may " have to rise somewhat" to make sure the economy doesn't overheat. Stocks added to session losses in the immediate aftermath of the comment. Yellen later clarified that she was not forecasting or recommending a Fed rate hike and emphasized her support for the independence of the central bank.
Isolating
India's foreign minister, attending the Group of Seven meeting in London, announced he would self-isolate after there were two cases of the disease among the Indian delegation. The news risks derailing the high-profile event that marks the G-7 debut of U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken. The Indian central bank announced new measures to help the economy during the current surge in cases. Research suggests that deaths from Covid in the country could pass 1 million by July.
Markets recover
Global equities are regaining some of yesterday's tech-led selloff after Yellen clarified her comments on interest rates. Overnight the MSCI Asia Pacific Index slipped 0.2% while Japan's Topix index closed 0.6% lower. In Europe, the Stoxx 600 Index was 1.3% higher at 5:50 a.m. Eastern Time with every industry sector in the green. S&P 500 futures pointed to gains at the open, the 10-year Treasury yield was at 1.605% and gold was flat.
Coming up...
Excitement about Friday's payrolls number kicks off at 8:15 a.m. with ADP employment change data. The Treasury announces quarterly issuance plans at 8:30 a.m. ISM Services for April is at 10:00 a.m. and crude oil inventories at 10:30 a.m. PayPal Holdings Inc., Uber Technologies Inc., General Motors Co., Barrick Gold Corp. and Fox Corp. are among the many companies reporting today.
What we've been reading
Here's what caught our eye over the last 24 hours.
And finally, here’s what Joe's interested in this morning
There are two things on my mind this morning. The first is that it really feels like crypto is draining all the speculative juice out of the market right now. It's like the gambling crowd is moving on from stocks. It's hard to prove, but you can see call option volume has significantly pulled back and is now sitting near its lowest levels of the year.
At the same time, the red-hot names from last year and early this year have gone super quiet. You hardly see anyone talking about ARKK these days, and the chart is not great looking, having broken below its 200-day moving average.
There's a bunch of other stuff like Chamath's SPACs, and Microstrategy etc. that all kind of look similar right now.
And finally I can't stop thinking about the chart of Dogecoin priced in Bitcoin hitting all-time highs. What this means is that there were all these people over the last few years with sermons about sound money and decentralization and the Fed and all that, and at every single point along the way, they'd be better off today if they'd bought the puppy coin instead. I'm not sure that will ever stop being funny.
Joe Weisenthal is an editor at Bloomberg
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