- A tropical depression has formed in the Atlantic east of the Lesser Antilles.
- This system is expected to track into the Lesser Antilles as Tropical Storm Elsa Thursday night and Friday.
- Its future regarding potential U.S. impact remains very uncertain next week.
A tropical storm is expected to barrel toward the Caribbean and has prompted new warnings for the Windward and Leeward Islands.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said Tropical Depression Five formed late Wednesday night about 1,000 miles east of the Windward Islands.
Tropical storm warnings were issued for parts of the Windward Islands, where tropical storm force conditions (winds of at least 39 mph) were expected within 36 hours. Those areas are shown in red in the map below.
Any tropical storm watches in effect are shown in yellow in the map below, meaning tropical storm conditions are possible in these areas within the next 48 hours.
This system is tracking quickly westward-northwestward at 20 to 25 mph. That should allow it to arrive in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands by Thursday night or Friday.
Systems moving this fast typically have difficulty gaining much strength, so we expect it to be a tropical storm when it reaches the Windward Islands. Once a tropical storm, it will be named Elsa.
Current Status and Forecast Path
(The red-shaded area denotes the potential path of the center of the tropical cyclone. It's important to note that impacts (particularly heavy rain, high surf, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually spread beyond its forecast path.)Regardless, it will bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to those islands by Friday.
The NHC says rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with isolated totals up to 8 inches are possible in the Windward and southern Leeward Islands Friday. This could lead to isolated flash flooding and mudslides. That said, the system's fast forward speed will limit the heavy rain threat that might otherwise be greater.
This system will then move across the central and western Caribbean over the weekend. Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Hispaniola, Jamaica and Cuba might see heavy rainfall from this system this weekend.
There are still some important forecast factors yet to come into focus once this system tracks into the Caribbean that will influence its future.
One of those is how much wind shear will be in place as it tracks through the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. Wind shear, or unfavorable upper-level winds, can tear apart tropical systems.
Right now, wind shear is of modest strength in parts of the Caribbean. But some forecast guidance is indicating wind shear could relax some by this weekend, possibly allowing Elsa to gain strength, rather than lose it.
(MORE: What to Expect From Hurricane Season in July)
Another factor is how much land interaction with Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and/or Cuba there will be to possibly weaken this system over the holiday weekend.
A final large uncertainty is when and how sharp the system is expected to make a northwestward turn later this weekend and early next week.
The range of outcomes spans from a sooner, sharper northwest then north then northeast turn, recurving well off the Southeast coast to a much more gentle, subtle, late northwest turn into the Gulf of Mexico.
If the system tracks toward Florida, later Monday appears to be the earliest this system could impact parts of South Florida.
Check back to weather.com for updates over the next few days as the forecast uncertainty is narrowed down.
Earliest Forming Fifth Named Storm?
If this system becomes Elsa before or early in the day July 5, it would be the earliest forming fifth named Atlantic storm on record. The current record is held by Edouard, which developed on the evening of July 5, 2020.
The name Elsa is new to the list of rotating names being used this season. This year's list was last used in 2015, but Erika was the "E" storm that year.
Erika was retired after it caused deadly and destructive flooding in the Caribbean Island of Dominica. Elsa replaced it.
The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report on breaking weather news, the environment and the importance of science to our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
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July 01, 2021 at 10:22AM
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Tropical Depression Five Forms; Warnings Issued In Windward Islands | The Weather Channel - Articles from The Weather Channel | weather.com - The Weather Channel
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