The Celtics have been very active this offseason after dealing away starting point guard Kemba Walker in June. A potential replacement for Walker surfaced last week when Shams Charania of Stadium reported that the Celtics are a team that is interested in Pelicans point guard Lonzo Ball, who will be a restricted free agent this summer.
The Celtics are well over the NBA salary cap before free agency even begins so any path to landing Ball would need to involve pulling off a complex sign-and-trade deal with the New Orleans Pelicans. Is that a realistic option for Brad Stevens this offseason? Let’s examine the steps that would be required to get a deal done.
1. The Celtics agree to a deal with Lonzo Ball: The Celtics are one of three teams (Chicago, Toronto) on the free agent market that are expected to have interest in Ball, according to Charania. Ball is a restricted free agent and the 23-year-old is expected to be looking for a deal pushing $21-22 million per season. Whether or not that’s a realistic salary target for Ball when there are so few teams with significant cap room (only five with more than $20 million in open cap room) remains to be seen. However, let’s say the Celtics agree with him on a contract and outbid his other suitors, many of which could elect to go after other top names in free agency instead of Ball. The terms of Ball’s contract would be key here to getting any deal done, since any sign-and-trade requires the contract to last for three years, although only the first year needs to be guaranteed. For this exercise, let’s say $60 million over three years is enough to lock Ball up for Boston.
2. The Pelicans decide they don’t want to match Ball’s offer from Celtics: Since Ball is a restricted free agent, New Orleans will have the option to match his contract once he tests the market. The Pelicans cleared out some significant salary cap room ahead of free agency by trading away the big contracts of Eric Bledsoe and Steven Adams to Memphis and that gives them options on the free agent market. They could open up max cap room for a big name if they decide to let restricted free agents like Ball and Josh Hart walk in free agency. New Orleans is rumored to have a strong interest in Kyle Lowry but it’s also entirely possible the veteran point guard goes to another win-now team (Miami will also be a suitor). If that happens, Ball may still be the Pelicans Plan B or C at point guard in that scenario so there’s no way the Celtics get him without New Orleans’ cooperation. In order for that to happen, the Pelicans have to decide they have a better alternative to Ball at the money he’s willing to sign for elsewhere.
3. The Pelicans and Celtics agree on compensation for the Pelicans to send Ball to Boston a sign-and-trade: New Orleans may decide they want to pursue a Ball alternative but they are under no obligation to send him to where he wants to go. The Celtics are going to need to incentivize the Pelicans to send Ball their way since they don’t have the salary cap room to sign him outright.
There are a number of ways the Celtics can do that (young talent, draft picks, etc.) but finding a deal that works under CBA trade rules won’t be easy. Ball is going to be a base-year compensation player this offseason, which complicates how his contract is measured for salary matching purposes in a trade.
The Celtics and Pelicans can work around this restriction in a number of ways, but before they figure out the logistics, the actual meaningful compensation in a trade would need to be worked out. There are two realistic options for Boston on this front to make the money work: Including Marcus Smart ($14.3 million) or Al Horford ($26 million) in a multi-player deal. Given the Pelicans’ timetable and the fact they just added Jonas Valanuncinas in a separate deal to likely play with Zion Williamson, Smart would be the play here for Boston. His defense would provide a big boost on a Pelicans team that has continually struggled in that department over the last two seasons and he’s likely more affordable on a long-term deal than Ball. The Celtics may need to add some sweetener here due to Ball’s age (a pick or another player) but the case could be made for either side benefitting from a deal involving Smart for Ball as the main moving pieces.
It’s important to note Smart for Ball straight up wouldn’t work under CBA rules due to Ball being a base year compensation player. In order to make it work, the Celtics would need to send out some additional salary to the Pelicans or a third team. Kris Dunn ($5 million) would be a candidate for this role or a couple of smaller contracts (Carsen Edwards, Bruno Fernando) would also serve the same purpose. The Celtics adding a second round pick to sweeten the deal for any team taking those deals would probably be sufficient compensation for a team taking back a salary unwanted salary and it would also make the framework of the deal workable under CBA rules.
4. The Celtics clear out enough salary to stay under the hard cap ($143 million) after receiving Ball and still have enough salary flexibility to fill out the remainder of the roster: This is going to be another serious obstacle to getting a Ball deal done. The Celtics have already trimmed down some salary by dumping $3 million from their payroll in the Tristan Thompson trade but they also added Josh Richardson and his $11 million salary into Gordon Hayward’s TPE on Saturday.
As of Sunday night, Boston’s payroll currently stands at roughly $133 million to 13 players for next season when you include the team’s dead cap hits. When a team receives a player in a sign-and-trade, they become hard capped at the apron ($143 million) for the entire upcoming season. Moving from Smart’s $14.3 million salary to Ball’s $20 million estimated salary for this exercise would inch the Celtics a lot closer to that apron, giving the Celtics front office only five million dollars to fill out the rest of the roster. Needless to say, the Celtics would let Evan Fournier walk to another team in free agency in this scenario.
On top of that, Brad Stevens would need to create some salary breathing room elsewhere to solve that hard cap problem. This is where dumping Kris Dunn’s salary or some other unwanted rookie contracts (Edwards/Fernando) would help create enough room to bring in some veteran’s minimum contracts and stay under the cap. However, making any other notable free agent additions would be off the table if Boston goes this route and using a large traded player exception wouldn’t be possible either unless another big contract (Al Horford) was moved somewhere.
These realities are a very big reason why the Celtics may not pursue this sign-and-trade path even if they like Ball and agree to a deal with the Pelicans in principle. There are a number of obstacles in team building when it comes to being hard capped and the Celtics could easily prefer having more flexibility for future free agency or a big trade next year (Bradley Beal?) rather than giving up Smart for Ball.
5. The Celtics and Pelicans agree on a complex trade involving a third team due to Ball’s base year compensation: If the Celtics jump through all of the previously discussed hoops on this list and make it to the finish line, finding a third team facilitator is the likely path this deal gets done. There are a number of paths the Celtics could take to make the logistics work financially but most involve finding a team with a trade exception to get involved and take an unwanted contract without having to send back salary. The Rockets, Magic, Cavs, Pacers and Wolves all have trade exceptions above $4 million that could help on that front, as well as any team with significant cap space. The C’s would need to send a pick out in all likelihood to facilitate a deal.
Final Thoughts
Any pursuit of Ball is a bit of a long shot for the Celtics given the number of obstacles that have been covered at length here. However, the Celtics have made a path to landing Ball a bit more realistic based on their moves over the past few days (dumping salary, finding a cheaper alternative to Evan Fournier). Those moves combined with Boston’s rumored interest in the 23-year-old point guard make this a situation to keep an eye on as NBA free agency kicks off this week. Any team with cap space will be a favorite to sign Ball over Boston given the hurdles involved in a sign-and-trade since there are so many ways a deal like this can fall apart. However, if the Pelicans decide to move in a different direction at point guard, this will be an avenue that the Celtics should explore if they prefer Ball over Smart over the long-term.
"ball" - Google News
August 02, 2021 at 03:48AM
https://ift.tt/3zQVbyq
How Celtics can acquire Lonzo Ball in sign-and-trade deal with New Orleans Pelicans - MassLive.com
"ball" - Google News
https://ift.tt/39CKzGV
Shoes Man Tutorial
Pos News Update
Meme Update
Korean Entertainment News
Japan News Update
No comments:
Post a Comment