MORGANTOWN, W.Va. – As West Virginia’s 2021 football opener at Maryland draws near (Saturday, Sept. 4 at 3:30 p.m. on ESPN), the Mountaineers, like every football team, face a variety of questions.
Here are my top five:
Big Play Ability – In the first two seasons of the Neal Brown era at WVU, the offense has chugged along at a pedestrian rate. It averaged 321.9 total offensive yards and 20.6 points per game in 2019 (both figures were last in the Big 12), and then it improved a bit to 412.6 total yards (sixth in the Big 12) and 26.5 points per game (eighth in the league) in the COVID-shortened 10-game campaign last season.
Thus 2020 was better than 2019, but it still wasn’t great.
West Virginia’s offense would greatly improve its total yards and scoring if it managed to become more explosive with big plays.
It’s usually very difficult for college offenses to string together methodical, lengthy marches. Something often goes wrong along the way. In its 12 games in 2019, WVU had just 15 scoring drives of 10 plays or more. Last year, it was better, putting together 17 such drives in the 10-game season.
What serves most football teams best is a lengthy, explosive play that covers big chunks of yardage in a single throw or run. West Virginia hasn’t had many of those in recent years, though. Last season, its offense had 23 plays of 30 or more yards, which ranked it 36th among the 126 FBS programs that competed in 2020. The year before WVU had just 22, which was the 95th best.
It wasn’t that long ago WVU was very good in that department, as it was sixth in 2018 with 45 plays of 30+ yards. Of course, that’s the difference when you have Will Grier throwing to Gary Jennings, David Sills and Marcus Simms, as was the case in ’18, compared to the much less experienced combinations of recent vintage.
Of course, nothing tops the 2012 combo of Geno Smith/Tavon Austin/Stedman Bailey (43 plays of 30+ yards, fourth-best in the FBS) and the 2006 combo of Pat White/Steve Slaton/Owen Schmitt (54 plays of 30+). That 2006 squad (11-2) needed just 12 scoring drives of more than 10 plays, even though it averaged 38.8 points per game, because it gashed opponents for so many big gains.
This year’s WVU squad may not feature a Will, Geno or Pat, or for that matter a Sills, Austin or Slaton, but with the like of Leddie Brown, Bryce Ford-Wheaton, Winston Wright, Sam James, Jarret Doege, et al, it does appear to have big-play potential. If the Mountaineer offense is going to show significant improvement over the past couple of seasons, it has to find that explosiveness.
Run Game – Besides generating more chunk-yardage plays, West Virginia must also develop more consistency in its ground game.
Certainly Leddie Brown gives the Mountaineers a great starting point. Yet despite the running back’s 101.0 rushing yards per game last season, which was the second-best mark in the Big 12, WVU was still only eighth in the league in overall team rushing with an average (135.1 ypg).
West Virginia simply must get better there if it is going to show overall improvement. Brown seems capable of upping his level of play even further, but WVU must find other capable options in the run game besides just the fourth-year back from Wilmington, Delaware. Be it Tony Mathis, A’Varius Sparrow, Justin Johnson and/or quarterbacks Jarret Doege and Garrett Greene, the Mountaineers need more success on the ground.
The magic number for West Virginia in recent decades is 150 rushing yards per game. In the last 19 years, WVU has averaged at least 150 or more rushing yards per game in 15 seasons, and it has won eight or more games in 12 of those, while winning seven in the other three. In the four seasons it has rushed for fewer than 150 yards per game, it has won more than six games just once (10-3 in 2011 with an average of 122.7 rushing ypg).
With Leddie leading the way, and an offensive line in front of him that appears improved from last year, increasing the team average by 15 yards this season and getting it to at least 150 yards per game would not seem to be a huge ask. It is likely vital, though, if WVU wants to improve on its win total.
Scoring – A more consistent rushing attempt and more explosive chunk plays would almost certainly also lead to a better scoring average for West Virginia’s offense.
As noted above, WVU’s scoring was eighth in the Big 12 in 2020 (26.5 ppg) and 10th in 2019 (20.6 ppg). It scored 30+ points in just five games combined in those two seasons, and was 4-1 in those contests. The Mountaineers put 30+ on the scoreboard 10 times in 2018 alone, and they had done so at least six times per season every year from 2010-18. West Virginia’s defense has been better lately than any other time during that stretch, so it was able to remain competitive despite its low-scoring offense. To move up in the Big 12 standings, though, WVU’s offense must score more points.
Other than West Virginia in 2020, the top half of the Big 12 overall standings in recent years has been populated by those who averaged at least 30 points per game, with the champion in Oklahoma averaging over 42 in both ’19 and ’20. West Virginia’s average of 26.5 ppg last year was its lowest for a WVU team that also had a winning record since 2010.
Its target goal should be at least 30 this coming season. Hitting that number has typically led to success for West Virginia. Since 1980, the Mountaineers are 202-21-1 when scoring 30 or more points, including a 121-18 record in such games since 2000. If you want to take it a step further, it is 194-6 all-time when scoring at least 40 points
Pass Defense – Unlike some of the Mountaineers’ questions on offense, where improvement is necessary, most of their defensive questions are not about getting better but maintaining an already high standard in the face of personnel turnover.
That’s especially true of the West Virginia pass defense, which was statistically the best in the entire FBA last season, as it allowed just 159.6 yards per game. Only two of WVU’s 10 2020 foes – it should be pointed out it didn’t face Oklahoma (297.4 pass ypg), as that game was canceled because of COVID – threw for more than 185 yards against the Mountaineers – Iowa State with 247 and Baylor with 229 in overtime.
West Virginia also achieved that strong pass defense without an especially great pass rush. It finished 2020 with 22 sacks, which was the sixth-best mark in the Big 12.
WVU has lost some key components from last year’s starting defensive secondary, as both cornerback Dreshun Miller (Auburn) and safety Tykee Smith (Georgia) transferred. Still, the other three starting DBs return (corner Nicktroy Fortune and safeties Alonzo Addae and Sean Mahone), and the first unit has a good deal of overall experience. Most of the backups are youthful, though, so they have to be brought up to speed in a hurry. The secondary also could use some help from a pass rush that should be improved with the likes of Dante Stills, Akheem Mesidor, Taijh Alston, VanDarius Cowan and Lanell Carr.
West Virginia’s pass defense doesn’t have to again lead the country – logic tells you those numbers probably won’t stay quite as high this season – but if WVU remains strong in that area, that’s a huge boost in a league that relies on throwing the football as much as the Big 12.
Avoiding First-Game Miscues – Whether it is Neal Brown, Dana Holgorsen, Bill Stewart, Rich Rodriguez or Don Nehlen, WVU has typically played well in season openers.
In the last 21 years, it is 17-4 in the first game of a season, losing only to Boston College in 2001 (34-10), Wisconsin in 2003 (24-17), Alabama in 2014 (33-23) and Virginia Tech in 2017 (31-24). While admittedly most of WVU’s other openers have often come against FCS or Group of 5 opponents, it does have some impressive victories to start a season, including Tennessee in 2018 (40-14), Missouri in 2016 (26-11), Syracuse in 2005 (15-7) and Boston College in 2000 (34-14). You can also go back to earlier decades to find season-opening wins over Pitt, Louisville, Oklahoma, Virginia, Maryland and others.
Still, every coach worries about gaffes that often occur in a season opener, especially in college football where there are no preseason exhibition games. Thus the turnovers, penalties, alignment errors, special teams miscues, miscommunication, substitutions mistakes, etc., which often lessen over the course of a season, always seem more prevalent in the opener. And in a game against another Power 5 opponent, where the margin of error to achieve a victory can be slim, every mistake is magnified.
WVU’s Neal Brown is about as detail-oriented as any coach you’ll find, so the hope is West Virginia’s season-opening miscues are minimal. Still, they’re bound to happen to the Mountaineers and every other football team that, say, fields a punt for the first time when the coverage team truly smells blood. The wrong bobble at the wrong time can be disastrous.
West Virginia has to avoid such disasters at Maryland on Saturday.
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August 31, 2021 at 05:00PM
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Five Questions For WVU As 2021 Season About To Begin | WVU | West Virginia Mountaineers sports coverage - Blue Gold News
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